Solver Microscope

How did the policy at one information set evolve — and do three independently seeded runs agree on it? Nine real artifacts: three training milestones × three seeds, no invented intermediate history.

LOW cross-seed disagreement — three independent runs land on nearly the same mix · seed-disagreement signal 0.0026 · entropy 0.613 bits

fcb33b75b150a
milestoneseed 0seed 1seed 2
300k2,196 visits1,483 visits2,376 visits
1M16,366 visits15,420 visits17,058 visits
2M45,361 visits43,473 visits44,702 visits

Why this matters

Cross-seed disagreement is one of the signals the confidence gate is calibrated on. The project’s calibration study (8,880 infosets with exact EV-regret targets) found that movement between checkpoints predicts true regret at no horizon, while visits and cross-seed disagreement are the real signals — which is exactly the difference between the “low” and “high” rows you can flip through above.

Method
deterministic: visits >= 200, entropy >= 0.3 bits, top-3000 by visits, then low/median/high cross-seed disagreement buckets (4 each)
Limitation
12 hand-inspectable infosets out of 144,025; milestone artifacts exist at 300k/1M/2M only — nothing between them is shown or interpolated
Data
PRECOMPUTED microscope.json
Reproduce
python scripts/build_web_research_data.py
Commit
503af8690f83
Strategy
sha256:f1860de75526…

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